Forget December. THIS is the most wonderful time of the year. Why? Because this is the time when we get to see how the new year is going to start out in terms of home sales. Wait...does getting excited about that make me a nerd? Oh, well. Let's be nerds together and jump into the January 2015 home sales report numbers from KAAR. Pretty pictures first!
Royal blue is the color of 2015, and this royal blue dot represents months of supply in January 2015. As you can see, although inventory was up from December 2014 in the greater Knoxville area, it's still the lowest it's been in any January since 2006. This means we're most likely looking at more price correction starting out in 2015 due to less competition. We've talked about this before, yes? Yes.
This royal blue dot represents active listings, and as you can see, they are WAY down, which is one reason for the continuing low inventory. Now, I know what you're asking. You're asking, "Suzy, why are these listings down?" And I'm going to say,
- It was January. Don't nobody want to list in January.
- A lot of folks chose to rent their homes when the market was down, which equals fewer listings now.
- A lot of folks aren't in a financial position to sell their homes now and are waiting another year or so.
- Have you looked outside lately?
But that's just my guess. It could be a vast government conspiracy. If you have any information on that, please message me directly. At any rate, I would expect these listings to go up in March and April, as the ice and snow has made listing a home in February pretty tough too (see #4 above).
This final blue dot is our favorite blue dot of all! Here you can see that January 2015 home sales were on par with 2013 and 2008 and way above where they were in January 2014. So, this too, is our second reason for lower housing inventory. It also happens to be a helluva way to start the year. Holla! Of course, there's no way to know what's going to happen as we thaw out and the year goes on, but I'd rather start out with a bang than a whimper.
- Inventory - The only thing lower right now are the temperatures outside.
- Most Pricing - Average & median prices for 3 & 4 bedroom homes and condos were WAY up year over year. I wish those prices would get on the streets and melt this dang snow!
- SALES! - It's gettin' hot in here, and that's because of sales! This a great way to start off the year. But just turn your heat down and keep on all your clothes for now. It's more energy efficient.
- House of Cards - JUST START SEASON 3 ALREADY.
- Listings - Still low, still not hot. My guess is they will warm up with the Spring weather.
- 2 BR Pricing - Average prices were down, but I'd call this more luke warm than ice cold.
- Renting - The rental market remains tight, but things should get very interesting now that rentals are allowed in the MLS.
- FHA Loans - With new 3% conventional loan products with fewer fees, FHA is is starting to get the cold shoulder from a lot of borrowers.
- Kanye - Seriously. Stone cold stupid.
- After these last two correction years, it will be VERY interesting to see how 2015 plays out in terms of inventory, sales, and pricing.
- Interest rates remain low, which should help the Spring Sellig Season start off with bang.
- Low inventory and climbing prices may mean that 2015 could be the year of The Return of the Sellers' Market. Stay tuned...
All information provided by KAAR (Knoxville Area Association of Realtors). My opnions are just that: opinions. I'm not really an expert in anything, but I do like to write about real estate.