It's January, you say? I say, OK, I can't deny that. I mean, there's the calendar on the wall. However, the November and December Knoxville Home Sales numbers from the Knoxville Area Association of Realtors (street name "KAAR") are just now out. So you know what that means: that's right, it's a Home Sales Report Blogging Bonanza! I'll be posting November, December and the 2014 Year End Wrap up over the next few days. I know it's exciting, but try to stay calm, because we have some charts to break down. Here we go!
Whoa, Nelly! That looks like a little bit of Thanksgiving turkey right there. As you can see by this red dotted line, months of supply jumped up a bit month over month AND year over year in November. SPOILER ALERT: this will have a lot to do with the active listing and closed unit charts below. And if you're math savvy, you may have already figured out this mystery...
This is an interesting clue in this red dotted line right here. As you can see, starting in September, it through us for a loop by suddenly jumping down and then did it again in October by suddenly jumping up. To my eyes, it looks like it fell back in the seasonal pattern in November, making everything right in the world again. You can also see that listings were not just lower than October, but also lower year over year and still at an 8 year low. So if inventory is up and listings are down...
Well, derp. Here's the answer to the November home sales mystery: Sales were WAY down month over and slightly down year over year. Again, we had a pretty big jump in sales in October that was unexpected and definitely not seasonally normal. So, if you look at the seasonal pattern, November's sales numbers weren't really that bad. This begs the larger question of WHAT THE HECK ACTUALLY HAPPENED IN OCTOBER? Sadly, we may never know, but this sure does leave a cliffhanger for those December numbers, now doesn't it?
So, let's break all this down, shall we?
- Inventory - Still at an 8 year low, even if it jumped up slightly month over month.
- Most Pricing - Average & median prices for 2, & 3 bedroom homes and condos where all up year over year.
- Benedict Cumberpatch. I mean, have you SEEN him?
- Listings - Apparently the Mystery of the Great October Listing Jump of 2014 may never be solved, but those listings jumped right back down in November.
- Sales - See above referenced mystery. In any normal month, these sales wouldn't have been too shabby, but October set that bar pretty high.
- 4+ BR Pricing - Average and median prices were down for larger homes in November.
- Google Glass. Seriously, stop wearing those things around.
- The high October sales and listing numbers remain a mystery, but November seems to have brought the market back in line with seasonal norms.
- Interest rates certainly didn't have anything to do with the dip in sales in November, as many buyers are still locking in at or just under 4%.
- With sales having dropped in November, I'm not saying it's a seller's market, but I am saying buyers may want to start saving up their change for their closing costs for the 2015 Spring Selling Season.
All information provided by KAAR (Knoxville Area Association of Realtors). My opnions are just that: opinions. I'm not really an expert in anything, but I do like to write about real estate.